THE PERILOUS GAMBLE: ZAWAHIRI'S KILLING AND TALIBAN'S BLAME

 The Taliban were alarmed by Zawahiri's murder, and a month after the attack, they tried to pin Pakistani officials with responsibility.

                                                                                    

                            

          The Taliban are now unbalanced as a result of the murder of Aiymen Al Zawahiri in the center of Kabul. Or at least their defense minister, who struggles to accept the unpleasant truth and its dire repercussions for the fledgling Taliban government. The Taliban have pledged in the Doha Agreement not to harbor terrorists on Afghan soil, so Zawahiri's presence in a safe house in Kabul is a damning indictment of them. Mullah Yaqoob continues to dispute that Zawahiri was the guy targeted by a US Reaper in the Kabul complex for this precise reason. However, the first US drone strike since the disorganized withdrawal of foreign soldiers from Afghanistan more than a year ago has clearly alarmed the Taliban.

Everyone is speculating about the potential launch site for the unmanned aircraft and the weapon it may have used to kill Zawahiri due to the limited information the US has released regarding the deadly strike. The Taliban's defense minister officially charged Pakistan with enabling the US to utilize its airspace for counterterrorism operations in Afghanistan more than a month after the attack. By Yaqoob's own admission, they don't have any supporting proof for this significant accusation. This fictitious charge drew a harsh response from Islamabad.

Such conjectural claims are "very disappointing" and "defy the norms of responsible diplomatic behavior," a foreign ministry spokesperson said. The absence of any evidence was admitted by the Afghan minister himself. He also encouraged the Afghan interim government to uphold its international pledge not to permit the use of Afghan territory for terrorism against any nation.

Although the spokesperson would not say it outright, his allusion was to Zawahiri's presence in the safe house in Kabul, where there was a $25 million US bounty on his head. The release of billions of dollars in Afghani funds that had been impounded since the Taliban took control of Kabul was opposed by the United States, which labeled it a violation of the Doha accord. The targeted compound did provide a "shredded body," according to Afghanistan's new rulers, but they claim there is no proof it belonged to Zawahiri.

Although unexpected, Yaqoob's "conjectural claims" were nothing new. Whether it was Ghani, Abdullah, Karzai, or now Yaqoob, Pakistan has always been the favorite target of Afghan leaders. To conveniently hide their failure to unify their severely fragmented and ethnically divided nation, they conveniently blame Pakistan for all the problems in Afghanistan. The outburst from Yaqoob was not unexpected. He and Sirajuddin Haqqani, the acting interior minister, reportedly had a joint media briefing planned to discuss the accomplishments of their respective ministries. But Haqqani backed out at the last minute because he hated accusing Pakistan in public without supporting evidence. Additionally, according to sources, Qari Fasihuddin, the chief of general staff in Afghanistan, was not pleased with Yaqoob's risky bet.

 

But why did Yaqoob act in that way? There might be several triggers.

 

First off, Yaqoob, the eldest son of Mullah Muhammad Omar, may have been motivated by his desire to stake out his position as the clear successor to the enigmatic founder of the Taliban. But according to Taliban sources, he can only boast of his pedigree because he lacks his father's charisma. They characterize him as a cunning, self-centered, and uninspiring man who has failed to win over the Afghan rank and file in the new political system. But Yaqoob has unrestricted goals. Before the news of his reclusive father's passing in July 2015, he held no official position within the Taliban hierarchy. He has been building up his might ever since. But he is aware that the powerful Haqqanis would continue to cast a shadow over someone with his ideologies. Yaqoob worked hard to improve his reputation among the field commanders to gain their support for his leadership. As a result of his intimate relationships with the military leaders outside the Taliban's southern stronghold, the group was able to achieve stunning successes in the normally hostile north during their march on Kabul last year, further solidifying his hold on the armed forces.

Second, Yaqoob is thought to have connections to the National Directorate of Security, Afghanistan's former intelligence service and government. And maybe, for this reason, he has let 82% of NDS staff members resume their jobs in various divisions of the new structure. The NDS and the former, US-backed government in Afghanistan were ferociously opposed to Pakistan. The NDS and India's RAW had collaborated closely to launch a proxy war against Pakistan. Therefore, Yaqoob's public rant against Pakistan could hardly be dismissed as a dissatisfied security czar's uncontrollable reaction. He was aware that doing so might help him win over India, the United States, and Afghan circles with a Western influence, which the hardline militia needs to lead their pariah state out of crises in the areas of diplomacy, the economy, and humanitarian aid while also changing the way they are perceived around the world. Coincidentally, India has become the first country to offer a de facto recognition to the Taliban regime. The Haqqanis, on the other hand, have a more lenient opinion of Pakistan, which has been maligned for 20 years by the Afghan government and receives support from the US.

Thirdly, Yaqoob aims to counteract the Taliban office in Doha, which dominated foreign media coverage throughout the drawn-out discussions with the United States. The principal negotiator, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, ultimately reached a deal with the US on February 29, 2020, which opened the door for the withdrawal of foreign soldiers from Afghanistan. After Mullah Omar's demise, Baradar, a co-founder of the Taliban, took over as its second-in-command. He served as the Taliban's most prominent spokesperson since Mullah Haibatullah Akhunzada, Mullah Omar's replacement usually avoided the spotlight. But since the Taliban took back power in August 2021, Baradar seems to have been neglected. He reluctantly agreed to play whatever part the new government provided him. According to Taliban insiders, Yaqoob preferred to include military figures in the cabinet rather than the political ones that Baradar was pushing. Yaqoob has stated in the open that those residing in Doha's opulence cannot impose their will on those waging jihad against the US-led occupying troops.

Fourth, the Taliban are not a uniform or monolithic group of fighters. Although they share the same goal of establishing a government based on shariah, there are conflicts of ethnicity, group, and ideology. It is no longer a secret that the Haqqani Network and the Kandahari faction are engaged in an internal power struggle. Sirajuddin, who represents the Haqqani Network, is the Taliban's fighting force, while Yaqoob, who represents the Kandaharis, is their ideologist. According to rumors, Mullah Omar had disagreements with the Haqqani Network, which was established by the illustrious jihadi commander Jalaluddin Haqqani. In certain Taliban circles, Yaqoob is thought to have abandoned Zawahiri to win over the US. Others do not discount the idea that Yaqoob initially provided Zawahiri with shelter in Kabul before turning on him to put the blame on the Haqqanis.

Last but not least, Yaqoob is the acting defense minister and is in charge of maintaining national security. He has constantly bragged about having "100%" security, but a recent uptick in deadly Da'ish attacks may have alarmed him because he hasn't even managed to secure the entire nation, let alone Kabul. The murder of Zawahiri in a neighborhood where senior Taliban leaders live has disproved his assertion that he was completely safe. This required some reflection, but Yaqoob chose the simple path. He attempted to place the blame on Pakistan, following the strategy of the previous US-backed Afghan rulers, without realizing how what he claimed could have benefited Pakistan, which is already suffering from a crippling economic crisis and political instability. Pakistan and Afghanistan are identical twins who experience the same joys and pains. Additionally, Pakistan's security would always be directly impacted by Afghan instability.

          Yaqoob's public rant would not be an isolated incident. As violence escalates in his unstable nation, he might find himself tempted once more to place the blame elsewhere. However, it would be foolish for him to put political expediency before of sound judgment and sour relations with Pakistan at a time when the country's isolated and cash-strapped government desperately needs allies to avoid economic upheaval and gain respect on a global scale.